Calibration plot — Björk UI

Components•Calibration plot

Calibration plot

A reliability diagram for probability forecasts. Each bin plots how often things happened against how likely they were called, with a Wilson interval, a count strip underneath and Brier and ECE above. Points rise off the diagonal, so the distance from perfect is the first thing you see. Brackets change the bin count.

Dependencies

Motion

Copy below cli

npx shadcn add @bjork-ui/calibration-plot

How to use

import { CalibrationPlot } from "@/components/bjork-ui/charts/calibration-plot";<CalibrationPlot forecasts={predictions.map((x) => ({ p: x.probability, outcome: x.won ? 1 : 0 }))} bins={10} />

Forecast calibration
Bin	Predicted	Observed	95% interval	Forecasts
0% to 10%	7.0%	23.3%	13% to 38%	43
10% to 20%	15.7%	24.7%	19% to 32%	154
20% to 30%	25.3%	31.8%	27% to 37%	333
30% to 40%	35.5%	41.1%	37% to 46%	453
40% to 50%	45.1%	46.7%	43% to 51%	544
50% to 60%	54.8%	53.3%	49% to 58%	540
60% to 70%	65.1%	59.7%	55% to 64%	429
70% to 80%	74.4%	70.7%	65% to 76%	287
80% to 90%	83.9%	74.9%	68% to 81%	171
90% to 100%	92.8%	78.3%	64% to 88%	46

Options

Model

Bins